IATA Data Shows Cargo Demand Improving
November 3, 2009The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported international scheduled traffic results for September 2009 that shows demand for international cargo was 5.4% below September 2008 levels. Load factors for passenger and cargo have returned to pre-crisis levels of 77.1% and 50.8%, respectively.
The apparent year-over-year improvement in demand is misleading. It is largely due to comparisons with an exceptionally weak September 2008, when cargo traffic fell sharply (-7.7%). Seasonally adjusted statistics show a 1.4% fall in cargo volumes for September 2009 compared with August 2009. This reflects the pause seen in the economic recovery in the United States and elsewhere in the past few months.
“It is far too early to call this a recovery. The worst may be over in terms of the fall in demand, but yields continue to be a disaster and costs are rising. The airline industry remains firmly in the red with a fragile business environment,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and CEO.
Rising costs are also a concern. As airlines adjust capacity to match demand, aircraft are flying fewer hours (-3% for some aircraft types). This is raising non-fuel unit costs. At the same time, oil prices have risen to above US$75 per barrel — considerably higher than the US$43 per barrel level at the start of the year.
Middle Eastern carriers showed the strongest performance of any region with a 3.6% year-on-year improvement. Latin American carriers also reported growth of 1.8%, but this was a decline from the previous month’s growth of 3.9%. Carriers in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America regions recorded improvements over August performance but remained in negative territory at -3.1%, -13%, and -5.0% respectively. Improvements were broadly in line with improved economic activity in each region. African carriers’ cargo operations declined further into negative territory from -5.1% in August to -6.9% in September.
